Understanding Medical Statistics - A Layman's Guide

Medicine is a science of statistics and nowhere isRemissions can either be complete or partial
this more apparent than in cancer treatment.depending on whether or not any evidence of
Here is a guide to understanding some of thecancer remains. Obviously, if no cancer can be
statistical terms you will run into when discussingfound after treatment then the remission is
cancer treatment.complete.
Firstly, you need to know that no one can predictIf the cancer is smaller but hasn't disappeared
with total certainty any patient's exact outcome.completely then the patient has experienced a
Instead, cancer mortality rates are based on thepartial remission.
outcomes of large numbers of people who haveA complete remission may represent a cure. But
had the same disease. In other words, thethere is still a chance that the cancer will return
statistics that will be quoted to you are onlydepending on the type of cancer. In people who
probabilities.achieve only partial remissions, the cancer nearly
A second thing to know is that not all cancersalways regrows.
have the same outcomes. In other words --Are there any other statistical terms I should be
some cancers are deadlier than others.aware of?
And the third thing to realize is that the probabilityThe 5 year survival rate tells you how many
of being cured depends very much on the stagepeople are alive at the end of 5 years but it
of your cancer.doesn't tell you how many of these people are in
For example, in all cancers, patients with stage 1complete remission at the end of 5 years (in
disease have better survival rates than patientsother words how many people have survived for
with stage 2 disease. And patients with stage 25 years and have no evidence of cancer).
disease have better survival rates than patientsSo here are two more specific terms:
with stage 3 disease. And stage 3 patients haveDisease-free 5 year survival rate. This is the
better survival rates than stage 4 patients.percentage of people who are not only alive after
That's why it's so critical for you to know what5 years but are in complete remission.
stage of the disease you have.Progression-free 5 survival rate. This is the
What is 5 year survival?percentage of people who are alive after 5 years
When doctors quote the probability of survival,but who still have evidence of cancer, although
they don't tell you that you're supposed to live 3the cancer isn't progressing. This includes people
years and 3 months. Instead, they quote you awho may have had some success with treatment
figure that's called the 5 year survival. Thisbut not enough to completely eradicate their
number represents the probability that someonecancer.
with your disease will be alive at the end of 5Two other statistical terms that you should be
years.aware of are relative risk and absolute risk:
For example, if the 5 year survival is 25%, thisAbsolute Risk Reduction Or Benefit. This is the
means that the odds of being alive after 5 yearsabsolute difference in results between alternatives.
are 25%. It's important to look at the particularSo, for example, if treatment A increased survival
group of patient for whom the 5 year survival isby 22% and treatment B increased survival by
being quoted. For example, it could include all20% then treatment A resulted in an absolute
patients with a certain type of cancer or it couldbenefit of (22%-20%) = 2%.
only include patients with a certain stage of thatRelative Risk Reduction Or Benefit. This is the
cancer.relative difference in results between alternatives.
For example, 49 percent, or about half, of peopleSo, in the above example, the relative benefit is
diagnosed with early-stage lung cancer live for at(22%-20%)/20% = 10%. This number is
least five years after diagnosis. So, the five yearcalculated by taking the difference in outcome as
survival for early-stage lung cancer is 49%.a percentage.
Contrast this with the five year survival rate forYou should beware that often results are
people diagnosed with lung cancer that has spreadpresented as relative risk reduction or benefit
(metastasized) to other areas of the body whichbecause the numbers sound more impressive. For
is only 3 percent.example, in the above example, a relative benefit
So, as you can see, you want to find out whatof 10% sounds more impressive than an absolute
the survival rate is for patients with the samebenefit of 2%.
stage of disease.Hopefully, now you'll be able to be a little more
What is remission?discerning about cancer statistics.
Remission refers to a shrinking of a cancer.